The big picture
Tampa Bay still bullies winters and faceplants in springs, and September brought mourning and prospects instead of answers.
What changed
2026 Tampa Bay Lightning Top 20 Under 25: #8 Maxim Groshev
Updated Sep 11 · 6:04 AM EDT · via Raw Charge
Read the reporting →Tampa Bay Lightning
Team deskTampa Bay LightningFull report and sources below
CoverageCurrent reportSeason as listed by the desk
Roster entries49Full personnel board below
Report sections8Open any section for the complete evidence
What matters now
Personnel
Stars up top, questions in the middle, and a camp list that proves nothing until cuts land.
Performance
Balance carried last season, with one wart on the dot that shows up when ice shrinks.
What comes next
The calendar offers no soft landing, with an early western gut check and an Atlantic fistfight to close.
01Team outlookThe complete editorial outlook and game-week context.
FLSportsDesk.com · Team Outlook
Team Outlook
Tampa Bay still bullies winters and faceplants in springs, and September brought mourning and prospects instead of answers.
The Tampa Bay Lightning finished 50-26-6 for 106 points and second in the Atlantic before the Montreal Canadiens bounced them in seven, the fourth straight first round exit. Four September games against the Nashville Predators and Florida Panthers are preseason evaluation only, separate from the Oct. 1 regular season opener on the road. The summer pivot to defenseman John Carlson, winger Ilya Mikheyev, goaltender Dennis Hildeby and center Conor Geekie in a larger role plus tight single-source cap room near $3.23M means any fix must come from inside, which ties finance to development.
No 2026-27 regular season games have been played, so every judgment on this group remains projection until opening night.
Watch camp cuts that set the real 23, the line assignment for Geekie in week one, and any official update on pair usage behind the top defensemen.
The operating thesis
Back to the Cup standard
Tampa Bay remains a regular-season heavyweight, but four straight first-round exits have turned playoff translation into the only question that matters.
Next checkpoint
Sun Sep 20 · 5:00 PM ET
Nashville
02Game center + scheduleMatchups, kickoff information and the season ahead.
FLSportsDesk.com · Team Outlook
Team Outlook
The calendar offers no soft landing, with an early western gut check and an Atlantic fistfight to close.
Two games against Nashville and two against Florida in September are preseason practice and roster evaluation only, separate from the 84 game regular season slate listed in the schedule feed. The real grind splits 42 home and 42 road, opens Oct. 1 on the road, then squeezes Vegas, Colorado and Utah into five days with Colorado and Utah on consecutive nights. That compression plus a closing run loaded with Florida, Toronto, Montreal and Boston ties directly to rest calls for goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy and goaltender Dennis Hildeby.
No 2026-27 opponent form exists, so grading October or April difficulty from last year records is inference, not fact.
Watch how coaches split the Colorado Utah back to back in net, and whether the early November Minnesota Winnipeg road pair hits before legs freshen.
preseason · Sun Sep 20 · 5:00 PM ET
vs Nashville
Benchmark International Arena · The Spot, SCRIPPS
preseason · Tue Sep 22 · 8:00 PM ET
at Nashville
Bridgestone Arena · The Spot, SCRIPPS
preseason · Thu Sep 24 · 7:00 PM ET
vs Florida
Benchmark International Arena · The Spot, SCRIPPS
preseason · Sat Sep 26 · 6:00 PM ET
at Florida
Amerant Bank Arena · The Spot, SCRIPPS
regular season · Thu Oct 1 · 7:00 PM ET
at New York
Madison Square Garden · TVAS
regular season · Sat Oct 3 · 7:00 PM ET
vs Washington
Benchmark International Arena · Broadcast TBD
regular season · Mon Oct 5 · 7:00 PM ET
vs Philadelphia
Benchmark International Arena · Broadcast TBD
regular season · Thu Oct 8 · 7:00 PM ET
vs Minnesota
Benchmark International Arena · MINNHL
regular season · Sat Oct 10 · 7:30 PM ET
at New York
UBS Arena · Broadcast TBD
regular season · Tue Oct 13 · 7:15 PM ET
at New York
Madison Square Garden · Broadcast TBD
regular season · Thu Oct 15 · 7:00 PM ET
vs Seattle
Benchmark International Arena · Broadcast TBD
regular season · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 PM ET
vs Vancouver
Benchmark International Arena · SNP
regular season · Tue Oct 20 · 10:30 PM ET
at Vegas
T-Mobile Arena · ESPN
regular season · Fri Oct 23 · 9:00 PM ET
at Colorado
Ball Arena · TVAS
regular season · Sat Oct 24 · 9:00 PM ET
at Utah
Delta Center · Broadcast TBD
regular season · Thu Oct 29 · 7:00 PM ET
vs Winnipeg
Benchmark International Arena · Broadcast TBD
03Intelligence + availabilityTeam news, availability and what it changes.
FLSportsDesk.com · Team Outlook
Availability and Matchup Watch
Contender in October, suspect in April, and the summer did not close that gap.
Tampa Bay won 50 games with a plus 56 differential and live special teams, so the regular season machine is real. Montreal bounced the Lightning in seven for a fourth straight first round exit including a 2-12 skid across the last 14 home playoff games, so translation is the issue. The summer answer of defenseman John Carlson, winger Ilya Mikheyev, goaltender Dennis Hildeby and center Conor Geekie in a bigger role thickens the roster without resetting the ceiling. Single-source PuckPedia cap room near $3.23M on a full roster forces midseason fixes from Syracuse, while the schedule squeezes depth early out west and late against Atlantic rivals where three points decided first. Prior totals show a 20.4 percent power play, an 82.4 percent kill and a 47.2 percent faceoff rate, balance with a dot leak that meets an older blue line where tight spring games tilt. Reporting is sturdy on structure from NHL feeds and two separate NHL.com reports but thin on camp pairs, lines and health, with fresh September items limited to a Raw Charge note on defenseman prospect Maxim Groshev and remembrances for former Lightning coach and broadcaster Barry Melrose as one event. The strongest countercase says the process never broke and variance plus draws explains the exits better than decay, which leaves contender with a playoff asterisk as the honest read until live games show carryover or slippage.
No 2026-27 games have been played, so all performance judgments carry over from last season plus transaction reports.
Watch Geekie deployment and dot work in October, Carlson minutes against speed, and the first credible beat reports on pairs and backup usage.
What would convince us
Show it for more than one night
A lasting change in five-on-five play, special teams or goaltending would move the season outlook. So would a major injury or roster move. One hot shooting night will not.
04Cap + free agencyContracts, cap estimates and personnel decisions.
FLSportsDesk.com · Team Outlook
Team Outlook
The math works, but only if Syracuse bails it out.
PuckPedia projects about $3.23M in room with 23 of 23 slots filled in single-source reporting that must be rechecked after cuts. Summer cash went to defenseman John Carlson, winger Ilya Mikheyev and goaltender Dennis Hildeby plus a bigger role for center Conor Geekie, depth shopping rather than star hunting. That leaves the squeeze from 49 camp bodies to 23 as the whole game and pushes injury cover toward young forwards, which ties finance directly to development.
The figure is a third party estimate with an error flag on the pull and must be rechecked after every transaction, recall or LTIR placement.
Watch official cuts that set the 23, any LTIR placement once camp contact starts, and the next PuckPedia revision after the roster squeeze.
PuckPedia estimate
$3.23M projected space
23/23 roster · Projected cap space is a third-party estimate and must be rechecked after every transaction, LTIR placement, recall or assignment.
Cap mechanics
Transaction-sensitive
LTIR, recalls, assignments, bonuses and retained salary must be rechecked after every move. Cap space is not treated as a static budget.
05Roster + depthThe full personnel board and sourced starting units where available.
FLSportsDesk.com · Team Outlook
Team Outlook
Stars up top, questions in the middle, and a camp list that proves nothing until cuts land.
Right wing Nikita Kucherov, center Brayden Point, winger Jake Guentzel, winger Brandon Hagel and center Anthony Cirelli give Tampa Bay a legit top six on paper, with defenseman Victor Hedman, defenseman Ryan McDonagh, defenseman Erik Cernak and goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy anchoring the back end. Defenseman John Carlson, winger Ilya Mikheyev and goaltender Dennis Hildeby arrive as transferred veteran help while center Conor Geekie carries the role growth bet. The 29 forwards, 14 defensemen and six goalies in camp dwarf normal NHL shape near 14 forwards, seven defensemen and two goalies, and tight projected room near $3.23M makes internal growth the likely injury plan.
Headcount is not quality, and most of the 29 camp forwards are organizational players with unproven NHL readiness in what was supplied.
Watch which bubble forwards survive, plus how pairs sort behind Hedman and whether Carlson holds a top four slot.
Forwards
29 listed
Nick Abruzzese#80 · C · L
Tristan Allard#13 · L · L
Anthony Cirelli#71 · C · L
Ethan Czata#45 · C · L
Dylan Duke#53 · L · L
More roster entries (24)
Cooper Flinton#50 · L · L
Ethan Gauthier#89 · R · R
Conor Geekie#94 · C · L
Zemgus Girgensons#28 · C · L
Gage Goncalves#93 · C · L
Yanni Gourde#37 · C · L
Jake Guentzel#59 · C · L
Brandon Hagel#38 · L · L
Jansen Harkins#10 · C · L
Pontus Holmberg#29 · R · L
Dominic James#17 · C · L
Nikita Kucherov#86 · R · L
Connor Kurth#68 · R · R
Lucas Mercuri#75 · C · R
Ilya Mikheyev#95 · R · L
Sam O'Reilly#23 · R · R
Jakob Pelletier#11 · L · L
Brayden Point#21 · C · R
Benjamin Rautiainen#41 · C · L
Milo Roelens#36 · C · L
Scott Sabourin#46 · R · R
Noah Steen#67 · L · L
Gabriel Szturc#96 · C · L
Jeffrey Viel#25 · L · L
Defense
14 listed
Michael Callahan# · D · L
John Carlson#74 · D · R
Erik Cernak#81 · D · R
Max Crozier#24 · D · R
Charle-Edouard D'Astous#51 · D · L
More roster entries (9)
Dyllan Gill#57 · D · R
Maxim Groshev#52 · D · L
Victor Hedman#77 · D · L
Tomas Kralovic#82 · D · R
Emil Lilleberg#78 · D · L
Simon Lundmark#7 · D · R
Ryan McDonagh#27 · D · L
J.J. Moser#90 · D · L
Steven Santini#16 · D · R
Goaltenders
6 listed
Dennis Hildeby#35 · G · L
Jonas Johansson#31 · G · L
Harrison Meneghin#1 · G · L
Olivier Rodrigue#32 · G · L
Mads Sogaard# · G · L
Andrei Vasilevskiy#88 · G · L
06Standings + rankingsThe division or conference race and national context.
FLSportsDesk.com · Team Outlook
Team Outlook
Last spring left Tampa Bay three points from first and tied with the team that buried them, so margin for error is thin.
The completed 2025-26 Atlantic table has Buffalo at 109 points, Tampa Bay and Montreal tied at 106, Boston at 100 and Ottawa at 99, which makes the path look difficult and crowded. No 2026-27 games have been played and no futures markets were supplied to test favorite status, so contender tag rests on last year's 106 points rather than a forecast. A closing schedule stacked with Florida, Toronto, Montreal and two Boston dates links directly to that three point margin.
This is a completed prior season table, and offseason moves across all eight clubs make straight line projection unreliable.
Watch early Atlantic head to heads, starting with Detroit twice in the first six weeks, as the first live read on division shape.
| Eastern Conference | GP | Record | PTS | DIV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Carolina Hurricanes | 82 | 53-22-7 | 113 | 1 |
 Buffalo Sabres | 82 | 50-23-9 | 109 | 1 |
 Tampa Bay Lightning | 82 | 50-26-6 | 106 | 2 |
 Montréal Canadiens | 82 | 48-24-10 | 106 | 3 |
 Boston Bruins | 82 | 45-27-10 | 100 | 4 |
 Ottawa Senators | 82 | 44-27-11 | 99 | 5 |
 Pittsburgh Penguins | 82 | 41-25-16 | 98 | 2 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 82 | 43-27-12 | 98 | 3 |
| Washington Capitals | 82 | 43-30-9 | 95 | 4 |
 Detroit Red Wings | 82 | 41-31-10 | 92 | 6 |
 Columbus Blue Jackets | 82 | 40-30-12 | 92 | 5 |
| New York Islanders | 82 | 43-34-5 | 91 | 6 |
 New Jersey Devils | 82 | 42-37-3 | 87 | 7 |
| Florida Panthers | 82 | 40-38-4 | 84 | 7 |
 Toronto Maple Leafs | 82 | 32-36-14 | 78 | 8 |
| New York Rangers | 82 | 34-39-9 | 77 | 8 |
07PerformancePerformance measures, baselines and supporting evidence.
FLSportsDesk.com · Team Outlook
Team Outlook
Balance carried last season, with one wart on the dot that shows up when ice shrinks.
Across 89 games including playoffs, Tampa Bay scored 301 and allowed 245 while outshooting foes by about 1.8 per game. The power play at 20.4 percent and the kill at 82.4 percent held up, so spring failure was not a special teams collapse on paper. The 47.2 percent faceoff rate is the wart, and it links to center depth behind the top two plus workload for goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy and goaltender Dennis Hildeby.
These are combined regular season and playoff totals for a roster that changed at forward, defense and backup goalie.
Watch faceoff percentage through month one and whether center Conor Geekie or a call up type moves center depth behind the top centers.
How we read the Lightning
Process before prediction
We look first at five-on-five play, shot quality, special teams and the workload in net. Then we ask whether the result came from repeatable play or a hot shooting night. These figures establish last season’s baseline; they do not become a 2026-27 trend until verified games and a meaningful follow-up window support it.
Games Played89
Wins53
Losses30
Ot Losses6
Points112
Point Pct0.62921
Goals For301
Goals Against245
Power Play Pct0.203636
Penalty Kill Pct0.823944
Shots For Per Game28.10112
Shots Against Per Game26.34831
Faceoff Win Pct0.471518
08Reporting + sourcesThe reporting and source links behind the desk.
Foundation
Context sources
- NHL.com roster reset
Tampa Bay went 50-26-6, finished second in the Atlantic and added John Carlson, Ilya Mikheyev and backup goalie Dennis Hildeby while opening a larger role for Conor Geekie.
- NHL.com playoff review
Montreal eliminated Tampa Bay in seven games, the Lightning's fourth consecutive first-round exit. Tampa Bay is 2-12 in its last 14 home playoff games.
- PuckPedia
The current 2026-27 projection lists roughly $3.23 million in cap space with a full 23-player roster.
Local coverage + RSS
Lightning Wire
- 2026 Tampa Bay Lightning Top 20 Under 25: #8 Maxim GroshevRaw Charge
The former forward spent his first full season as a defenseman, know it’s time to crack the Tampa Bay Lightning line-up Name Max Groshev Position Defense (Left Shot) Age (as of October 1, 2026) 24 Height/Weight 6’2″, 198 lbs. Expected 2026-27 Team Syracuse Crunch Draft – Year, Round 2020, 3rd, (85) Previous Rankings 15 (2020), 15 (2021), 15 (2022) 15 (2023), 10 (2024), 10 (2024) JustinG. Ranking 11 Final Rank 8 Stats
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Tampa mayor warns residents could face new fees if Amendment 3 passes wtsp.com
- Barry Melrose, former Lightning coach, passes away at age 70 - Raw ChargeRaw Charge
Barry Melrose, former Lightning coach, passes away at age 70 Raw Charge
- Barry Melrose, former Lightning coach, passes away at age 70Raw Charge
For hockey fans of a certain age, Barry Melrose was quite literally the face of the NHL. Clad in bold suits, with his iconic long hair brushed back, he would provide exuberant commentary on ESPN and the newly-born ESPN2 on a nightly basis. A former player, coach, and broadcaster, the 70-year-old Melrose passed away on Wednesday. There was no mistaking the love he had for the game. While the broadcaster/analyst career
- Former Lightning coach, NHL broadcaster Barry Melrose dies at age 70 - tampabay.comTampa Bay Times
Former Lightning coach, NHL broadcaster Barry Melrose dies at age 70 tampabay.com
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- Barry Melrose Passes Away At 70Pro Hockey Rumors Lightning
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- Latest On Nikita Kucherov Contract TalksPro Hockey Rumors Lightning
Reigning Hart Trophy winner Nikita Kucherov has only known a single NHL team in his NHL career, and he has become one of the Tampa Bay Lightning’s all-time great players. The future Hall of Famer is entering his 14th season with the club, but as things currently stand, he may not reach a 15th. The […]
- 2026 Tampa Bay Lightning Top 20 Under 25: #9 Ethan Gauthier - Raw ChargeRaw Charge
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- 2026 Tampa Bay Lightning Top 20 Under 25: #9 Ethan GauthierRaw Charge
Ethan Gauthier had a solid, if somewhat unspectacular, first season with the Syracuse Crunch. Can he build on that and possibly make it to the NHL this season? Name Ethan Gauthier Position Winger Age (as of October 1, 2026) 21 Height/Weight 6’0″, 183 lbs. Expected 2026-27 Team Syracuse Crunch Draft – Year, Round 2023, 2nd (37) Previous Rankings 7 ( 2025 ), 5 ( 2024 ), 4 ( 2023 ) JustinG. Ranking 8 Final Rank 9 Stats:
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- Lightning announce roster, schedule for 2026 Prospect Showcase - nhl.comLightning official
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- 5 Lightning prospects we could see on the NHL roster this season - tampabay.comTampa Bay Times
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Podcast desk
Reported analysis
- No current podcast episodes were available.
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